標題: A weak stock market 24 [打印本頁] 作者: sbaawyeh 時間: 2016-3-8 14:11 標題: A weak stock market 24
Market Leaders Hesitate on Stimulus Plan
Proposed Economic Government Plan May Not Stimulate A great deal The new administration is advising an $825 billion "stimulus" plan. A lot of the package is geared toward supporting existing or expanded packages such as unemployment assistance, law enforcement officials, food stamps, etc. Point about this spending will "save" existing employment or keep existing courses already in place. This may alleviate problems with things from getting more serious, but it will offer little in the way of providing new stimulation for the economy. Another large portion of the stimulus plan is in the form of taxation cuts. While depreciation bonuses may spur some new enterprise spending, credits to individuals may offer little incentive to spend due to the state of their balance bed sheets and concerns about work. After all the hype Kamagra Reviews concerning infrastructure spending, only about 25% of your package is geared toward this area.
Tug of War In between Viagra 25mg Review Liquidity and Economic WeaknessThe chart below was created on the website with the Federal Reserve Bank of E. Louis. It shows the eye gulping down expansion of the money supply as financial institutions have swapped stock options and other "assets" for cash via borrowing from the bank from the Federal Reserve. Borrowing before this crisis is barely visible on the graph. Recent funding is an extreme example of the definition of "spike" on a graph. Despite the never before seen tapping of the Raised on, financial assets show very little evidence of reflation taking place. Stocks: Downtrend Continues to be In PlaceIf you compare your long S 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) to the short Ersus 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SH), it is clear the short side of the marketplace is in better shape. There is very little in the way of fundamentals, except desire of government bailouts, to expect any kind of change to these trends.
Current weakness in the S 600 Index leaves open the possibility that we will revisit the Nov 2008 lows around 740 (intraday). In the event those lows do not hold, a move back toward 1000 becomes quite possible. On Feb 5th (1/23/09) the S 500 closed at 832. A drop here we are at 740 is a loss of Generic Levitra Australia 11%. A move time for 600 would be a drop associated with 28%. These figures along with the latest downtrend highlight the importance of principal safeguard and hedging strategies. SH, the short S 500 ETF, could be used to protect long positions or even play the short side with the market.
Gold Gold Futures Still Face Hurdles Friday's big moves in gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) in addition to Kamagra 100 Effervescent gold mining stocks (NYSEARCA:GDX) get some calling a new uptrend. When recent moves have been spectacular some hurdles remain.
Precious metal stocks (GDX) look a little more powerful than gold, but almost any entry in the market should be minimal in size. If $38.88 may be exceeded, our confidence would certainly increase and possibly our coverage.
Run In Treasuries Is Extensive In The Tooth Investments while using highest probability of success are the types with positive fundamentals and positive technicals. Conversely, the least appealing investments have poor fundamentals and poor technicals. government delivering new bonds at an worrying rate, a continued deterioration while in the technicals could signal the end of the Treasury bubble. Treasury bonds.
Strength In Bonds Shows Little Anxiety about Price Inflation The government's policies are attempting to stem a tide of falling tool prices. They hope to reinflate business activities along with asset prices. This charts here show:
A poor stock market (see SPY higher than), and
An improvement in many Kamagra Oral Jelly Reviews set income investments (below: LQD, AGG, BMT, PHK, in addition to AWF).
Weak stocks and more powerful bonds tell us the government's reflation efforts are thus far not working. If perhaps concerns about deflation remain more predominant than concerns about rising cost of living, fixed income assets may offer us an apportunity. With funds markets, CDs, and Treasuries paying next to nothing, we may be able to find enhanced yields in the following:
LQD Purchase Grade Corporate Bonds
AGG Purchase Grade Bonds Diversified
BMT Covered with insurance Municipal Bonds
PHK High Render Bonds
AWF Emerging Market Govt Bonds
With the economy within a weakened and fragile declare, we need to tread carefully through these markets. Some key degrees which may improve the odds of success are shown in the charts below. Erring on the side of not taking positions remains prudent. The markets continue in a "prove it to me" Brand Levitra 20mg method where we would like to see the trading markets move through key levels ahead of putting capital at risk.
Disclosure: Ciovacco Funds Management and their clients hold positions in SH, GLD, and PHK. CCM normally takes long positions in GDX, TBT, LQD, AGG, BMT, and also AWF.
